UFC 269: Preview and Predictions
The final UFC PPV event of the year is upon us and with it comes one of the most stacked cards of 2021.
Co-headlined by two title fights, a bantamweight championship bout will be up first as the destructive Amanda Nunes takes on her latest challenger Julianna Pena before two of the lightweight divisions most well-rounded and skilful fighters square off in champion Charles Oliveira against ‘The Diamond’ Dustin Poirier.
The rest of the main card sees competitive contests within the top 15 of their respective weight classes while the preliminary portion of the night features the likes of Augusto Sakai vs. Tai Tuivasa, Dominick Cruz vs. Pedro Munhoz and Josh Emmett vs. Dan Ige.
Charles Oliveira (31-8, 1 NC) vs. Dustin Poirier (28-6, 1 NC)
Both men are proven finishers inside of the octagon and to see them develop over the years into the fighters they are today has been a joy.
For the champion, it was a long road to the top but Oliveira has essentially picked up every accolade along the way. Whether it be the most ‘Performance of the Night’ bonuses or holding the crown for most submission wins, Oliveira is as dynamic and threatening a competitor you can get in the UFC.
Poirier meanwhile has perhaps done things the harder way as you’d be hard pressed to find a tougher schedule of opponents in the history of the sport and he’s beaten the vast majority.
I do think this fight will be decided by the distances afforded by either man as Oliveira should have the advantages at the extremes. Whether it be at range with his kicks or in close to snatch up any submission, ‘Do Bronx’ can certainly catch any fighter at 155 lbs and bring an early close to proceedings.
If the fight is fought within that sweet spot however, Poirier’s slock boxing and power can bring some serious damage to a fighter whose chin has been in question.
As with 99% of fights at the elite level, this will be extremely hard to call but I think if Poirier can get out of the first round and build momentum, his power should be the difference.
Pick: Dustin Poirier
Amanda Nunes (21-4) vs. Julianna Pena (10-4)
Pena has talked a big game heading into this but I think for all of her trash talk and bravado, it’s been water off of a ducks back where Amanda Nunes is concerned.
While Pena will no doubt want to use her wrestling and take away Nunes’ power, she couldn’t get her grappling game going against a similarly physical presence in Germaine de Randamie.
With that struggle in the past, I can’t see anything other than another routine title defence for ‘The Lioness’.
Pick: Amanda Nunes
Geoff Neal (13-4) vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio (28-4)
I was pleasantly surprised by Ponzinibbio’s last performance as I thought the injuries may have caught up with the Argentinian but he remained a threat for all three rounds en route to a win against a bright prospect in Miguel Baeza.
Neal similarly will have question marks above him here as a very recent DWI arrest suggests a less than perfect approach to this bout.
If he’s on his game and dialled in, though I think Neal’s speed and power will be a lot for Ponzinibbio to handle as he has been rocked or worse since his return from injury.
Pick: Geoff Neal
Kai Kara-France (22-9, 1 NC) vs. Cody Garbrandt (12-4)
Garbrandt’s move down to 125 lbs looks to be a double-edged sword for the former bantamweight champion.
On one hand, his power should be amplified at a lower weight class but a cut in weight could exacerbate an already troubling lack of durability.
Potentially fortuitous for Garbrandt though is that Kara-France isn’t the most explosive of flyweights but could still well frustrate the flyweight debutant.
It’s a tough one as I think a lot of the questions hang on Garbrandt’s condition but I believe his power and size should get him past Kara-France.
Pick: Cody Garbrandt
Raulian Paiva (21-3) vs. Sean O’Malley (14-1)
Paiva’s ground game could cause new problems for O’Malley but he was defensively very porous against Kyler Phillips on the feet.
If there’s one thing that we do know about O’Malley at this point it’s that he can keep his distance and remain accurate with his strikes and that should get Paiva out of there early doors.
Pick: Sean O’Malley
(Last Predictions: 2/6, Total: 122/210, 58% Success Rate)
(Success Rate: 2016: 61%, ’17: 60%, ’18: 58%, 19′: 57%, 20′: 67%)