UFC Fight Night 165: Preview and Predictions
The final UFC event of the decade is upon us and with it brings two of the biggest fan favourites in MMA squaring off for the very first time.
Headlined by a featherweight bout between all-action fighters Frankie Edgar and Chan Sung Jung, UFC Fight Night 165 emanates from Busan, South Korea in the early hours (8:00 am GMT) and provides a card geared towards the Korean crowd.
With the co-main event and the return of Doo Ho Choi particular stand-outs to look out for on the main card, the preliminary card also boasts an excellent flyweight bout between Alexandre Pantoja and Matt Schnell while Ciryl Gane makes a quick turnaround in the heavyweight division.
As for the predictions, let’s try and closeout 2019 with a return to form after a slew of draws have taken a drastic beating to our overall percentage over the last couple of events.
Frankie Edgar (23-7-1) vs. Chan Sung Jung (15-5)
This has all the makings of a classic bout.
With Edgar you have a sensationally skilled fighter with a never-say-die attitude while ‘The Korean Zombie’ is an aptly named relentless pressure fighter.
For Edgar to win this bout, you’d have to presume that he will have to be at his transitional best between striking and grappling. Making up for his short stature, Edgar offers a combination of punches while either changing angles mid-way or looking for a takedown to deliver his best offence. One place where he may find the most success is through his footwork as he’ll have to avoid the punishing blows of the South Korean when in close.
Jung however is comfortable either as the aggressor or on the counter in the stand-up exchanges while his own grappling ability is of a high-level despite the fact he never actively pursues takedowns.
Ultimately however, with Edgar making the short-notice decision to fly around the world to take on a high flying ‘Korean Zombie’, I don’t think it’ll be the best decision of his career.
Asking him to avoid Jung for five-rounds is a big ask as I can’t see him finding a way to bring an early end to the bout. Unfortunately for him, I can see Jung causing more damage and potentially a TKO stoppage.
Pick: Chan Sung Jung
Volkan Oezdemir (16-4) vs. Aleksandar Rakic (12-1)
Both Oezdemir and Rakic have the ability to finish this fight on the feet at any time and you’d expect this bout to remain upright for the majority.
After shaking off a few consecutive losses, Oezdemir has bounced back in a major way and looked a really accomplished patient fighter against Ilir Latifi in his last outing.
Rakic meanwhile is probably the more well rounded of the two but his KO of Jimi Manuwa was truly thunderous and you’d expect the 27-year old to remain confident in his abilities on the feet.
It’s a tough fight to call due to their power but I think Rakic’s bigger frame may count for a lot in the clinch but also when operating at range.
Pick: Aleksandar Rakic
Doo Ho Choi (14-3) vs. Charles Jourdain (9-2)
It’s great to see Doo Ho Choi return to the Octagon after a near two-year break but the UFC aren’t particularly doing him any favours with a fight against Charles Jourdain.
While Choi has proven to be an exciting prospect in his own right, Jourdain made a solid name for himself on the Canadian circuit with a solid skill set and impressive athleticism. While he has only had one fight in the UFC thus far, he still tested a really solid fighter in Desmond Green.
Jourdain could well have the skills to capitalise on a rusty ‘Korean Superboy’ here but the time off to recover from two punishing bouts may have been the best thing for Choi. After a healthy break and in front of his home crowd, I think we’ll still see a return of the big power that Choi possess behind some crisp striking.
Pick: Doo Ho Choi
Da Un Jung (12-2) vs. Mike Rodriguez (10-4)
Jung has a deep gas tank as proven in his promotional debut against Khadis Ibragimov and he also displayed the ability to rally late to secure a submission victory.
Rodriguez meanwhile has shown to be a good kickboxer but outside of that has shown little in rounding out his MMA skills. While he certainly possesses fight-ending power, his losses under the UFC have seen him taken down and held there convincingly.
Maybe I’m overrating Jung’s ability to get this fight to the mat, but I think his volume will allow him to capitalise on the porous takedown defence of Rodriguez.
Pick: Da Un Jung
Junyong Park (10-4) vs. Marc-Andre Barriault (11-3)
Both Park and Barriault have made winless starts to their UFC careers but in pairing these two strikers against one another, they should be able to show more of what they’re about.
Similarly, both Park and Barriault give as good as they get in terms of striking output in landing and absorbing strikes but Park operates at a much more higher volume on both cases.
While output may well swarm Barriault, I can’t really trust someone who absorbs as many strikes as Park does. Add in that the Canadian seemingly packs more power, has fought better quality in the UFC and could well throw in a takedown of his own and I think ‘Powerbar’ may get off the mark for his UFC account.
Pick: Marc-Andre Barriault
Kyung Ho Kang (16-8, 1 NC) vs. Liu Pingyuan (15-5)
As much as Pingyuan may have a big upside in his future, I think this fight is Kang’s to lose at the moment.
While Pingyuan has shown solid striking and decent movement, Kang has fought better opposition, doesn’t get hit as often and is capable of scoring much-needed takedowns.
Pick: Kyung Ho Kang
(Last Predictions: 3/5, Total: 124/216, 57% Success Rate)
(2016: 61%, ’17: 60%, ’18: 58% Success Rate)