UFC on ESPN 7: Preview and Predictions
After a welcome three-week break, the UFC returns this Saturday night with UFC Fight Night 165.
Headlined by a heavyweight clash between veteran and rising star, Alistair Overeem is set for a five-round clash with the heavy-hitting Jairzinho Rozenstruik.
Supported by two high-ranking male bantamweight clashes to open up the main card in addition to two top 10 female affairs, UFC: Washington looks set to be a solid welcome back to the UFC product.
Alistair Overeem (45-17, 1 NC) vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik (9-0)
Picking heavyweight bouts between knock out artists is essentially a fools errand as any fight can flip with seemingly any strike.
In Jairzinho Rozenstruik’s case, that is particularly pertinent as he’s finished fighters with an innocuous jab thanks to his outrageous power.
For all of his power, however, Rozenstruik is also a technically sound kickboxer which gives him a much greater chance than any wild brawler.
While Overeem does have the greater kickboxer acumen, his chin is always a looming question mark over his fights with 13 of his MMA losses coming via KO.
This could well be a quick blitz from Rozenstruik and that’s all she wrote but Overeem has made a habit out of fighting much more conservatively recently and I wouldn’t be surprised to see ‘The Demolition Man’ take this fight to the ground.
Based on his much more rounded skill set, I’ll cautiously favour Overeem to try and remove Rozenstruik’s greatest threat.
Pick: Alistair Overeem
Marina Rodriguez (12-0-1) vs. Cynthia Calvillo (8-1)
Calvillo missed weight for this bout and that should bring an end to her strawweight career win or lose.
Nevertheless, Calvillo has time after time operated outside of her greatest strengths and decided to abandon any pretence of taking her opponent’s down.
Instead, Calvillo has employed a basic striking game and against someone with a higher output, I think this fight will go against her much like her bout against Carla Esparza.
With Rodriguez holding strong takedown defence and averaging nearly double in terms of strikes landed by minute, I think Rodriguez has a clear path to victory.
Pick: Marina Rodriguez
Stefan Struve (29-11) vs. Ben Rothwell (36-12)
Ben Rothwell has not looked good since his return to competition.
Struve meanwhile is coming out of a short-lived retirement for this bout so who knows.
I’ll favour Struve thanks to his submission threat and Rothwell’s general lack of impact.
Pick: Stefan Struve
Aspen Ladd (8-1) vs. Yana Kunitskaya (12-4, 1 NC)
Yana Kunitskaya has coasted through a lot of her fights thanks to her long frame but Aspen Ladd looks to be the more physically imposing fighter here.
While I don’t think either are particularly crisp with their striking, I think Ladd will be able to bully her way in close and take away Kunitskaya’s best weapons.
Pick: Aspen Ladd
Cody Stamann (18-2) vs. Song Yadong (15-4, 1 NC)
Cody Stamann is a really solid well-rounded fighter and his threat of the takedown could be decisive here.
Yadong meanwhile looks to be a harder hitter and more nimble on the feet which could pile up if he’s able to keep the fight standing.
It’s a really tough pick as Yadong is so young that his improvements could take massive leaps in between fights while Stamann has the ability to grind out a workmanlike victory.
I’ll gamble on Yadong continuing to impress.
Pick: Song Yadong
Rob Font (16-4) vs. Ricky Simon (15-2)
Stylistically this fight looks to play into Simon’s hands.
With a ridiculous pace, Simon’s activity can cause fits for Font who is a cool, calm technical stand-up fighter.
Maybe I’m reading too much into Simon’s loss to Urijah Faber, but I think Simon isn’t as durable as he believes he is and so if Font can time his strikes to Simon’s entries, I think he can land damaging counter-blows.
Pick: Rob Font
(Last Predictions: 3/5, Total: 119/205, 58% Success Rate)
(2016: 61%, ’17: 60%, ’18: 58% Success Rate)