UFC Fight Night 164: Preview and Predictions
The UFC puts on its final Brazilian card of 2019 this Saturday night and in tow brings two of the South American country’s biggest MMA legends.
Headlined by the light heavyweight debut of Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza against top contender Jan Blachowicz, former PRIDE and UFC champion Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua will also be on display as the 37-year old occupies the co-main event slot versus short-notice replacement, Paul Craig.
With little other excitement on the main card outside of submission specialist Charles Oliveira, the more interesting match-ups can be found on the preliminary card in the likes of Warlley Alves vs. Randy Brown, Francisco Trinaldo vs. Bobby Green and Sergio Moraes vs. James Krause.
Jan Blachowicz (24-8) vs. Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza (26-7, 1 NC)
Jacare certainly has the skillset to win this fight but after his last performance against Jack Hermansson, it’s a struggle to see him find success at the light heavyweight limit.
While the Brazilian packs a hefty weight behind his strikes and is as talented as they come where grappling is concerned, he was routinely stuck behind the jab of Hermansson and against bigger opponents just as capable, its a struggle to see him work his way to a win.
Blachowicz meanwhile has proven to hold a strong jab within his arsenal and he’s seemingly hit new heights with steady improvements. Looking better than ever in the clinch in particular, I think unless Jacare can ground Blachowicz early, he’ll be in for a disappointing night.
Pick: Jan Blachowicz
Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua (26-11) vs. Paul Craig (12-4)
Shogun’s chin is certainly questionable with the wear and tear he’s sustained over his career but I’m highly skeptical of Paul Craig having the technical ability to better Rua.
Outside of wins against the lower echelons of the UFC’s 205 lbs division or hail mary submissions, Craig has struggled to impress with his striking or getting his opponents to the mat. For that reason, I just don’t see him being able to beat Shogun even at this late stage in his career.
Pick: Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua
Charles Oliveira (27-8, 1 NC) vs. Jared Gordon (15-3)
Jared Gordon is tough and unrelenting in his approach but Charles Oliveira has made a habit out of beating opponents not as technically sound as him.
‘Do Bronx’ is solid on the feet and holds the UFC record for submission wins. Outside of an early blitz, this is Oliveira’s fight to lose.
Pick: Charles Oliveira
Antonio Arroyo (9-2) vs. Andre Muniz (18-4)
Arroyo vs. Muniz seems to be a classic striker vs. grappler battle with both men fairly aggressive in how they approach their gameplans.
While Arroyo looks to be the better athlete, I favour Muniz’s experience to allow him to find openings for takedowns or trips and then work his grappling from there.
Pick: Andre Muniz
Markus Perez (11-2) vs. Wellington Turman (15-3)
Wellington Turman showed a lot of promise in his short-notice UFC debut but I think this fight plays into Markus Perez’s hands.
Turman likes to try and bully his opponents in close but Perez looks to be the bigger man and he seems to be the better finisher both on the feet and on the mat.
Pick: Markus Perez
(Last Predictions: 3/6, Total: 116/200, 58% Success Rate)
(2016: 61%, ’17: 60%, ’18: 58% Success Rate)