UFC on ESPN 6: Preview and Predictions
The UFC’s unrelenting run of shows continues with a slight deviation as UFC on ESPN 6 emanates from Boston, Massachusetts this Friday night.
Headlined by a five-round affair between light heavyweight prospect Dominick Reyes and former middleweight champ Chris Weidman, the UFC’s 498th event is supported by a grudge match between Yair Rodriguez and Jeremy Stephens and a host of other blue-chip prospects from across the board.
Dominick Reyes (11-0) vs. Chris Weidman (14-4)
Fighters with question marks over their durability have not had a good time moving up in weight class recently, I think this fight may follow that same blueprint.
While Dominick Reyes is an excellent finisher with some sharp striking, his somewhat generous win over Volkan Oezdemir did expose some struggles with pressure. Nevertheless, the 29-year old has proven to be durable himself and throws malice in his straight punches.
Weidman meanwhile is by no means a finished fighter, but fights that he has been winning have turned around quickly by a powerful strike and he struggles to rally back.
Technically, Weidman has shown a more well-rounded skillset over his career but with a move up to light heavyweight, I have serious concerns over his ability to take a shot – especially against a proven finisher in Dominick Reyes.
Pick: Dominick Reyes
Yair Rodriguez (12-2, 1 NC) vs. Jeremy Stephens (28-16, 1 NC)
Thanks to the 15 second no contest from a few weeks ago, I can re-use my prediction as I doubt much has changed apart from perhaps some more aggression from both parties.
Rodriguez has remained an exciting watch throughout his UFC career due to his flashy kicks and while Rodriguez pulled a win from the jaws of defeat against Chan Sung Jung last time out, his overall performance showed improvements, most notably in his boxing.
Stephens is also a strong kicker but relies heavily on attacking the legs without the variety that Rodriguez possesses. Add in Stephens’ heavy hands, decent wrestling and the ground-and-pound to accompany it and he offers a threat to most opponents.
A real interesting variable to this fight, however, is the decision by Stephens to work with Tony Ferguson in his preparation. Stephens will no doubt want to replicate Ferguson’s ridiculous gas tank and if he can add some smart footwork when pressing, it could severely reduce Rodriguez’s ability to get creative.
It’s a really tough fight to pick but with Rodriguez holding more tools to his striking arsenal, I think his dynamism will get ‘El Pantera’ over the line.
Pick: Yair Rodriguez
Greg Hardy (5-1) vs. Ben Sosoli (7-2, 1 NC)
Ben Sosoli is a welcome solid opponent for Greg Hardy at this point in his career and he could provide some problems for the former NFL player.
He’s shown he has power and is capable of taking a hit but I don’t think that’s what is needed to defeat Hardy at this stage.
For all of the talk of Hardy’s athleticism, he doesn’t seem anything out of the extraordinary – just enough to best a severely unremarkable ower half of the heavyweight division.
We can only hope that Sosoli wins and ends the UFC’s fascination with Hardy but I think Hardy will add another win to his resume thanks to his power.
Pick: Greg Hardy
Joe Lauzon (27-15) vs. Jonathan Pearce (9-3)
Maybe the break from his last performance will benefit Joe Lauzon but he simply did not look good in his last fight.
For as much as Lauzon has proved to be exciting and a really good fighter throughout his career, he has seemingly tipped over into the category of worrying for their safety.
Hopefully this Lauzon’s farewell in his home state as I expect Pearce will have a distinct speed advantage and doesn’t have the wear and tear of his opponent.
Pick: Jonathan Pearce
Maycee Barber (7-0) vs. Gillian Anderson (7-3)
This is a great fight that could easily go either way.
Both Barber and Anderson are perhaps the brightest prospects in the UFC’s flyweight division and I’d expect them to fight each other again much higher in the rankings later on in their careers.
In Barber, you have a powerful fighter who is fairly well-rounded offensively but there are question marks about her striking defence thanks to her last fight.
Anderson meanwhile is a great threat in the grappling exchanges and that could come in to play with Barber’s tendency to clinch.
If the fight routinely goes to the mat, I’d favour Anderson to snatch a submission at some point but I think Barber’s athleticism will be enough to keep it upright and over-power Anderson.
Pick: Maycee Barber
Deron Winn (6-0) vs. Darren Stewart (10-4, 1 NC)
Darren Stewart has shown to be a big hitter at middleweight and his last few fights have seemed to have his skillset click into gear for ‘The Dentist’.
Winn meanwhile is a talented prospect with really solid wrestling credentials and one of the best fighters possible acting as a mentor in Daniel Cormier.
Winn, much like Cormier, will have to learn how to overcome his undersized physique but with the more well-rounded skill set, I think Winn has enough to put on a pace that Stewart will struggle to contend with.
Pick: Deron Winn
(Last Predictions: 5/6, Total: 107/179, 60% Success Rate)
(2016: 61%, ’17: 60%, ’18: 58% Success Rate)