UFC on Fox 30: Preview and Predictions
With UFC 227 one week away, the UFC travels to Calgary, Canada on Saturday night with a fight card that is absolutely stacked.
In the main event, Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier will run back their no contest bout at UFC 211 with both men gunning for a lightweight title shot. With both men entering the scheduled five-round fight with KO wins over Justin Gaethje, a win at the Scotiabank Saddledome for either man will surely set-up a title shot once the Nurmagomedov – McGregor malarkey has sorted itself out.
Elsewhere at UFC on Fox 30, Jose Aldo will participate in his first non-title bout since 2009 as he takes on the hard-hitting Jeremy Stephens, former strawweight queen Joanna Jedrzejczyk looks to break a streak of back-to-back losses to Rose Namajunas in a match-up with the game Tecia Torres while Alexander Hernandez gets the chance to back-up his knockout promotional debut win over Beneil Dariush by facing off against Olivier Aubin-Mercier.
The preliminary cards for Saturday’s event are also loaded with talent so it should promise to be a fun-filled event from start to finish.
(Note: There will be no ‘Preview and Predictions’ piece for next weeks UFC 227 event.)
Eddie Alvarez (29-5, 1 NC) vs Dustin Poirier (23-5, 1 NC)
This fight should be a barnburner.
Both pack devastating power, are incredibly well-rounded and to top it all off, they don’t like each other.
In Eddie Alvarez, you have a fighter who is amongst the very best in the lightweight division’s history. In his last outing against Justin Gaethje, Alvarez’s patient boxing helped to break down the then-undefeated fighter and a knee up the middle scored a spectacular knockout for ‘The Underground King’. It was a testament to Alvarez’s adaptability and durability that he essentially beat Gaethje at his own game and helped to shake off the disappointment of his loss to Conor McGregor.
Poirier meanwhile has shown a little more eagerness to grapple in his latest bouts as opposed to Alvarez. While Alvarez has very good wrestling and has chalked off some submission wins, Poirier has out-grappled the likes of Anthony Pettis and possesses a nasty D’Arce.
Looking at their first contest, Poirier had Alvarez badly hurt before going all out for the finish. Finishing Alvarez is a tougher task than expected, however. After taking a flurry of punishment, Alvarez turned the tables on Poirier before an instinctual knee on the grounded Poirier forced the no contest.
A little over a year on from that fight and Poirier has shown improvements to his game which does make me ever so slightly side with ‘The Diamond’. With the speed advantage and the experiences of their original bout hopefully learned from, I think Poirier can pick his moments at range and edge out what should be a tightly contested affair.
Pick: Dustin Poirier
Jose Aldo (26-4) vs Jeremy Stephens (28-14)
It’s almost inconceivable that Jose Aldo has lost three of his last four, all via stoppage no less, but here we are.
As his career has gone on, Aldo has developed a slower style than the explosive one who burst onto the scene in WEC but Aldo’s results have still maintained outside of his match-ups with younger elite opponents.
Looking to hand Aldo another loss is Jeremy Stephens who is probably in the best moment of his career. With more disciplined performances to supplement his power, Stephens has managed to rack up three straight wins since back-to-back losses to Frankie Edgar and Renato Moicano.
It should be a close fight with Aldo in a downturn of form but I don’t think that Aldo’s durability has been cracked enough for Stephens to knock him out – the only path to victory I see for ‘Lil Heathen’.
Pick: Jose Aldo
Joanna Jedrzejczyk (14-2) vs Tecia Torres (10-2)
Much like Aldo, Joanna Jedrzejczyk is a former champion on a downturn of form but I think the reasons for that slump are much different than the Brazilian.
While Jedrzejczyk has lost two on the bounce, her losses have seemingly stemmed from a stylistic nightmare as opposed to time catching up with the fighter in question.
With Torres being a similar style of fighter as Jessica Andrade, a stocky wrestler who Jedrzejczyk easily dispatched on the scorecards, I can’t see Torres winning this bout.
With the Polish fighter having excellent takedown defence and only really having trouble with Claudia Gadelha’s wrestling, I think Jedrzejczyk will keep the fight standing and use her speed and accuracy to pick apart ‘The Tiny Tornado’.
Pick: Joanna Jedrzejczyk
Alexander Hernandez (9-1) vs Olivier Aubin-Mercier (11-2)
Outside of the main event, this is probably the hardest fight to pick on the entire card.
While we’ve seen a sizeable amount of Olivier Aubin-Mercier in the UFC, Alexander Hernandez has 42-seconds worth of tape that is readily available to watch.
From the limited video on Hernandez, the 25-year-old is primarily a powerful wrestle-boxer who will switch stances and throw in the occasional round kick and front kick.
Aubin-Mercier, however, has shown to be a talented grappler while his striking has steadily improved in each outing.
It’s a hard fight to pick as Hernandez is an unknown quantity but I’ll side with the older and more experienced Canadian fighter to just edge out a win in his home country.
Pick: Olivier Aubin-Mercier
(Last Predictions: 4/6, Total: 66/113, 58% Success Rate)
(2017: 60% Success Rate)