UFC Fight Night 125: Preview and Predictions
The UFC makes its first voyage of 2018 to its home away from home this Saturday night as UFC Fight Night 125 emanates from Belem, Brazil.
In the main event, the UFC have put hometown hero Lyoto Machida up against a rising prospect of the middleweight division in Eryk Anders. Machida, a former UFC light heavyweight champion, is 1-4 in his last five fights and has been finished in his last three. Anders will no doubt look to compound Machida’s woes and extend his undefeated record to 11-0.
Elsewhere, the rest of the card is filled with fun fights that have gone under the radar in the UFC’s unrelenting calendar. With the likes of Valentina Shevchenko making her flyweight debut, Thiago Santos vs Anthony Smith and preliminary bouts Tim Means vs Sergio Moraes and Iuri Alcantara and Joe Soto, UFC Fight Night 125 promises to be a fun event from top to bottom.
Lyoto Machida (22-8) vs Eryk Anders (10-0)
With Eryk Anders struggling to make weight, my prediction for this fight does come with more caution than it would have earlier in the week.
While the Lyoto Machida of old would have steamrolled anyone not at an elite level, Machida in his current condition is seemingly spent both athletically and in his ability to take any punishment.
The Brazilian will no doubt look to counter Anders and will have taken note of the prospects tendency to lead with a straight but whether he can pack the power or speed to stifle Anders is a big question mark hanging over this bout.
In Anders, you have the younger man, an excellent athlete and someone improving his technique and fight IQ with each outing. With a high output to match his pressuring style, it’s hard to look beyond the former college American Football player and you’d have to wager that he can stop Machida either on the feet or with ground-and-pound.
Pick: Eryk Anders
Valentina Shevchenko (14-3) vs Priscila Cachoeira (8-0)
Who did Cachoeira annoy at UFC HQ to fight Valentina Shevchenko on her promotional debut?
Cachoeira has a phenomenal backstory but to be thrown to a fighter with the experience of Shevchenko is mind-boggling.
Shevchenko is simply levels above the Brazilian and is destined to become women’s flyweight champion if given the opportunity.
Pick: Valentina Shevchenko
Michel Prazeres (23-2) vs Desmond Green (20-6)
Prazeres missed weight widely for this fight and will no doubt be forced to move up to 170 lbs after this catchweight bout.
The Brazilian is more than keen to take his opponents to the mat and his back-to-back north-south chokes are proof that he can submit his opponent with his top game. Green meanwhile is crisper on the feet, has an impressive gas tank and can sprawl pretty well.
If Green can keep the fight standing and tire Prazeres in the process, Green should have the counter striking to pick up the later rounds but with Prazeres going without the weight cut and being the more physically imposing, I can see the Brazilian taking Green down and holding position.
Pick: Michel Prazeres
Timothy Johnson (11-4) vs Marcelo Golm (6-0)
Johnson is amongst the best in the heavyweight division at grinding away in the clinch and this fight could easily be a boring 15 minutes.
The Brazilian fans will no doubt be hoping for another Golm smash but his inexperience will be tested by Johnson’s rounded skillset.
The smart money should be on Johnson but I’ll side with Golm landing a strike with heavyweight intentions.
Pick: Marcelo Golm
Douglas Silva de Andrade (24-2, 1 NC) vs Marlon Vera (12-4-1)
This is a great fight on paper.
Andrade has power and an enigmatic style while Marlon Vera is improving with each outing and has a well-rounded game.
On the feet, Andrade employs a Muay Thai base with a lot of leg kicks. His technique, however, can sometimes go out the window in favour of wild swings and spinning attacks. With that unpolished style, I think Vera can capitalise either with moving out of range or by taking the fight to the ground and showing off his jiu-jitsu game.
It’ll be a tough ask but with his toughness and more refined skill set, I’ll pick Vera to return to winning ways.
Pick: Marlon Vera
Thiago Santos (16-5) vs Anthony Smith (28-12)
Santos vs Smith is a brilliant opener.
Both guys pack a mighty wallop at 185 lbs and are on top form heading into this bout.
Santos is a great kicker and uses them as both set-ups and ending blows on devastating combinations. While the Brazilian has come unstuck when grappling, Santos possesses workable takedown defence in order to keep the fight standing and in his wheelhouse.
Smith meanwhile is more varied in his offensive game and has shown improvements in his submission game to be considered a threat everywhere.
While Smith will look to crowd out Santos and remove his kicking game, defensively Smith takes more damage historically than his Brazilian foe and that is a big problem when facing Santos’ power.
It could easily go either way and a win for either wouldn’t be a shock but I’ll go with ‘Maretta’ to start the better and give the Brazilian fans a reason to cheer at the start of the main card.
Pick: Thiago Santos
(Last Predictions: 3/4, Total: 7/13, 54% Success Rate)
(2017: 60% Success Rate)