UFC 220: Preview and Predictions
As the UFC kicks off 2018 with it’s first PPV event of the year, the MMA promotion may well have one of the greatest heavyweight fights of all time on its hands.
In a battle to see who is the ‘baddest man on the planet’, champion Stipe Miocic will look to make history by becoming the first UFC heavyweight to defend his title for the third consecutive time. If Miocic can achieve that monumental task, the Ohio native will certainly go down as the greatest heavyweight in UFC history and may well challenge Fedor Emelianenko as the G.O.A.T of 265 lbs.
Standing in Miocic’s way, however, will be a challenger who has blitzed his way through the division. With a 100% finish record, Francis Ngannou has brazenly devastated everyone standing opposite the Cameroonian and recorded the terrifying 2017 knockout of the year against Alistair Overeem in his last bout. This fight can simply not be missed.
In the co-main event, Daniel Cormier will also seek to defend his own UFC title as the light heavyweight champion takes on Volkan Oezdemir, a fighter who has taken just 70 seconds to defeat his last two opponents.
Elsewhere, the rest of the main card is occupied by stylistic clashes and exciting prospects so make sure that you don’t miss what promises to be a historic event.
Stipe Miocic (17-2) vs Francis Ngannou (11-1)
The heavyweight punching power lottery looms large over this bout but we’ll try and dissect where each fighter’s strengths lie.
In the champion Stipe Miocic, you have an accurate striker with the gas tank to go late into the fight. Like all elite heavyweights, Miocic’s power is devastating as he has knocked off his last four opponents in the first round but he also has the wherewithal to take the fight to the mat when needed.
While primarily using a single leg to complete his task, Miocic routinely took Mark Hunt down in their bout to avoid the ‘Super Samoan’s’ power and also took the opportunity to ground Alistair Overeem in his first heavyweight title defence before landing the ground and pound which ended the bout.
Where Francis Ngannou is concerned, you have an inexperienced fighter but one who has taken to the sport like a duck to water. While his power is quite frankly bone-chilling, Ngannou has shown the skills to ensure he comes away with the victory. Against the veteran Alistair Overeem, Ngannou drew out an attempt of a counter by the former K-1 champion and responded with his own to switch out the lights. Even when pushed into the clinch by Anthony Hamilton, Ngannou clasped onto a kimura grip and flung Hamilton to the floor to record his first submission win in the UFC.
With the short nature of Ngannou’s bouts, there are questions still unanswered about his game. How is his cardio when fights go deep? How is his jiu-jitsu from the bottom? With the little we have seen of Ngannou, you have to rightly presume that Stipe Miocic has more paths to victory than his challenger.
Where Ngannou will look however is to the chin of Miocic. While the champion has only lost twice, he has been rocked by Alistair Overeem and Ngannou may be the hardest puncher Miocic has faced.
If the fight goes past the second, you’d have to slide the scale heavily in the champion’s favour but this may be Ngannou’s time. The smart bet is on Miocic to use his greater set of tools to remove Ngannou’s power from the equation but with ‘The Predator’s’ rise, there’s a sense of inevitability that Ngannou will become champion.
Pick: Francis Ngannou
Daniel Cormier (19-1, 1 NC) vs Volkan Oezdemir (15-1)
On paper, Daniel Cormier should be walking this fight.
He’s fought the best of the best at both light heavyweight and heavyweight and dominated them all outside of Alexander Gustafsson and Jon Jones. As a wrestler, you’d be hard-pressed to find anyone as talented as Cormier while his striking has come on leaps and bounds over the years, so much so that he was hanging tough with the phenom that Jon Jones is in their last bout.
What will buoy Volkan Oezdemir however, is that DC has been hurt in each of his last five bouts.
Anthony Johnson’s sledgehammer punches have dropped Cormier momentarily in both of their bouts; Alexander Gustafsson’s knees in the clinch have done the same; a late body kick by Anderson Silva seemingly gave Cormier cause for concern while Jon Jones’ head kick which Cormier leaned into marked the beginning of the end in his last bout – a fight which has rightfully been chalked off due to Jones’ positive test for steroids.
While Volkan Oezdemir is somewhat of an unknown quantity, he clearly holds devastating power and will look to ‘boop’ DC when he closes the gap. It’s no coincidence that his knockouts in the UFC have come while on the backfoot as when Oezdemir takes the initiative, he squares up and can be hit as his fight with Ovince Saint Preux shows.
If Oezdemir is to win, it will have to be by knockout. Do I think that can happen? Yes. Do I think that will happen? No. Cormier will have to be cracked and face immediate pressure to switch his lights out and I can’t see that happening. What I can see happening is Cormier to use his experience and dictate this fight as he chooses from the get-go.
Pick: Daniel Cormier
Shane Burgos (10-0) vs Calvin Kattar (17-2)
Much like the Thomas Almeida – Rob Font bout, this fight is definitely one that can showcase two very enjoyable fighters with little buzz outside of hardcore MMA fight fans.
In Calvin Kattar, you have a fighter who made his UFC debut on short notice and took his opportunity with both hands, both literally and figuratively, against a then seven fight veteran of the UFC in Andre Fili. Displaying a sharp one-two, Kattar routinely found a home for his strikes against Andre Fili and listened to the wise advice of Mark DellaGrotte in his corner meticulously en route to a unanimous decision.
With the undefeated Shane Burgos, however, you have a fighter who is more aggressive in terms of seeking out the finish and pushes the pace constantly to draw out counters. With impressive head movement, Burgos has shown the definition of ‘slip-and-rip’ in his bouts and closes the door well on his attacks with a tasty left hook.
While I can see Burgos’ pressure and pot-shotting counter style winning rounds, I fancy Kattar to use his movement and toughness to stifle and frustrate Burgos – a style that troubled Burgos at times against Charles Rosa – and come out with the decision victory in a close fight in front of his home crowd.
Pick: Calvin Kattar
Gian Villante (15-9) vs Francimar Barroso (19-6, 1 NC)
This fight has all the makings of a long slog.
Francimar Barroso dictates a slow pace on the feet and can grind away in the clinch and on the mat while Gian Villante is probably the fighter who is harangued the most in the UFC by his corner for failing to adapt in any way.
If Barroso wins, it’ll most likely be a terrible eye-sore for 15 minutes while if Gian Villante wins, it’ll be a stoppage victory.
How this fight has made it to the main card of a PPV I do not know but we’ll plump with Villante to entertain the crowd and not drive the Boston crowd into wooing and booing for what would seem like an eternity.
Pick: Gian Villante
Thomas Almeida (22-2) vs Rob Font (14-3)
From a technical standpoint on the feet, Font is a joy to watch in a sport where striking fundamentals go out the window more often than not. He possesses a lovely jab, has good power and can string combinations together in variance and target. Defensively though, Font has come unstuck against fighters who apply pressure. In his fights against John Lineker and Pedro Munhoz, Font has succumbed to the pressure of fighters who can either walk through his own power or disrupt his rhythm when he is on the ascendency.
When it comes to Thomas Almeida, it’ll be up to the Brazilian to fight fire with fire. Neither man can boast of a strong chin in this bout but Almeida has shown the better recovery skills when the going gets tough. While Almeida was dropped twice in the first round of his last bout against the highly ranked Jimmie Rivera, ‘Thominhas’ recovered well and made the final two stanzas competitive before ultimately losing a unanimous decision.
I think if this bout heads into the third round, you’d have to favour Rob Font to come out the victor but with Almeida’s aggressive striking style, the Brazilian can force Font into a fight that he is uncomfortable with and find an early stoppage.
Pick: Thomas Almeida
(Last Predictions: 1/4, Total: 1/4, 25% Success Rate)
(2017: 60% Success Rate)