UFC Fight Night 119: Preview and Predictions
After missing 18 months of his career through a debatable USADA suspension, ‘The Dragon’ Lyoto Machida returns to the Octagon tonight hoping to make up for lost time as he takes on the heavy-hitting Derek Brunson in the main event spot as the UFC returns to Sao Paulo, Brazil.
With just one week until the highly-touted UFC 217, the UFC has gone all out for UFC Fight Night 119 and have stacked the deck from top to bottom.
Exciting bouts like Vicente Luque vs Niko Price, Antonio Carlos Junior vs Jack Marshman and Hacran Dias vs Jared Gordon are filled throughout the prelim card but here are ReadMMA’s preview and predictions for the main card portion of UFC Fight Night 119:
Derek Brunson (17-5) vs Lyoto Machida (22-7)
If this fight were prior to 2015, Lyoto Machida would be a lock to win this bout.
Machida has made a career out of picking off fighters with his patient and accurate in-and-out striking but in his last two bouts, both in 2015, the Brazilian has been brutalised by high-quality opposition.
Whether time away from competition will allow Machida to rest and rejuvenate remains to be seen but while Machida has been away, his reactions and speed will naturally slow as he ages.
Brunson meanwhile is coming off a knockout of Dan Kelly and a performance against Anderson Silva that many thought he should have won on the judge’s scorecards.
Brunson does have a tendency to leave his chin far too exposed and if Machida is to win, he’ll have to capitalise on his opponents defensive mistakes. Unfortunately for the Brazilian, I think time has simply passed him by and Brunson’s physicality will be too much in a five-round fight.
Pick: Derek Brunson
Demian Maia (25-7) vs Colby Covington (12-1)
Covington is renowned for his heavy wrestling style and he absolutely dominated Dong Hyun Kim in his last outing with his aggression in securing the takedown.
Whether he can afford to run the risk in taking down Demian Maia though is an interesting thought. Covington has decent striking ability but uses it primarily to set-up his transitions to the mat. ‘Chaos’ has publicly stated that he wants to knock out the 39-year-old Maia but if Tyron Woodley couldn’t starch the Brazilian, I don’t see Covington being able to.
It’s a tough call whether the new blood of the division can knock off arguably the greatest grappler in the sport’s history and it’s not a call that I can get behind. Maia is simply a genius at imposing his will on his opponent and I doubt Covington currently has the level of ability needed to shake off his submission attempts.
Pick: Demian Maia
Pedro Munhoz (14-2, 1 NC) vs Rob Font (14-2)
Munhoz will want this fight on the mat but he’s not the sort of fighter that looks to impose himself and dictate the tempo like a Demian Maia would.
Font meanwhile has impressed a lot more during his UFC tenure. His footwork is excellent, he mixes up his strikes well and he can finish a fight both on the feet and on the ground.
Font and his coaches will know Munhoz will look for any opportunity to snatch a submission so I expect the American to pick his shots from range and continue his climb up the bantamweight rankings.
Pick: Rob Font
Francisco Trinaldo (21-5) vs Jim Miller (28-10, 1 NC)
Jim Miller will make history in this fight as his 28th UFC outing will be the most in promotional history, a record that is very impressive for such a cut-throat division. The 34-year-old looked past his expiration date a few years ago but after a battle with Lyme disease, Miller has regained his form.
With Francisco Trinaldo, the Brazilian had been on a seven-fight winning streak before running into Kevin Lee and the ageing Brazilian has long been a staple of the top 20-25 fighters at 155 lbs.
I think this fight will be decided by whoever can start out better and keep on the front foot. With the fight in Brazil and Trinaldo possessing the longer range and bigger physicality, I expect Trinaldo to grind away at a game Miller.
Pick: Francisco Trinaldo
Thiago Santos (15-5) vs Jack Hermansson (16-3)
Two of middleweights hardest hitters meet here and I highly doubt this will go the distance.
Santos is the better kicker out of the two but Hermansson is deadly with his ground and pound.
I’m going to guess that Hermansson can stumble into range as Santos’ throws to the liver and for both men to fall to the mat. From there, the Swede will finish his man.
Pick: Jack Hermansson
John Lineker (29-8) vs Marlon Vera (10-3-1)
I’m a big fan of Marlon ‘Chito’ Vera but a fight with Lineker is too big a step up for the Ecuadorian.
Lineker is simply just too powerful and wicked with his punches for those outside of the elite at bantamweight and his pressuring footwork ensures he can keep his opponents back to the cage.
Vera will find his way to the top but this fight is too much, too soon.
Pick: John Lineker
(Last Predictions: 2/4, Total: 82/132, 62% Success Rate)
(2016: 61% Success Rate)