UFC 208: Preview and Predictions
The UFC welcomes a new women’s division this Saturday night as fearsome strikers Holly Holm and Germaine de Randamie look to become the inaugural UFC featherweight champion at the UFC’s first PPV event of 2017.
UFC 208 is buoyed by a Brazilian presence in standouts ‘Jacare’ Souza and Glover Teixeira as they take on Tim Boetsch and Jared Cannonier respectively, while the co-main event features none other than arguably the greatest fighter of all time, Anderson ‘The Spider’ Silva.
With that small blurb out of the way, let’s get onto the predictions of a slightly underrated card and hopefully, our picks are a little better this week.
Holly Holm (10-2) vs Germaine de Randamie (6-3)
Holm vs De Randamie is such an intriguing and exciting match-up but the added caveat of a bizarre featherweight title fight and then a division to prop up for the winner leaves a little bit of a sour note.
It’s clear the UFC have little interest in a women’s 145 lbs division outside of ‘Cyborg’ Santos but with the Brazilian sidelined while a USADA failure is addressed, this title fight seems to be an easy ploy by the UFC to create a ‘worthy’ PPV main event.
Onto the fight itself nonetheless, and this headliner pits two long and rangy strikers against one another and that similarity in stature will be a little foreign to both women in MMA. Both women frequently face smaller opponents and use their distance management to put their opponents on the end of their power side strikes.
Holm has used that control to devastating effect during her time in the UFC, with her performance against Ronda Rousey being the particular standout, but she had real trouble with Valentina Shevchenko’s in-and-out movement in her last bout. De Randamie possess that movement style along with her own control of distance but she has also put in some brutal work with her knees and dirty boxing in the clinch and that may well force Holm to abandon an all out kickboxing match and threaten the takedown.
With that being said, Holm has a major advantage in big fight experience in MMA. Holm has the five round experience that De Randamie doesn’t and she has also faced much stiffer competition than the undefeated Dutch kickboxer has in MMA. The big question of this fight boils down to: Is the ‘Iron Lady’ looking dominant against poor competition or is she just that good in the stand-up department?
The answer, I think, is that there’s a middle ground when it comes to De Randamie but with Holm in a do-or-die situation, this isn’t an opponent or situation where De Randamie can afford to test the waters.
Pick: Holly Holm
Anderson Silva (33-8, 1 NC) vs Derek Brunson (16-4)
This is such a tough fight to call.
When it comes to Anderson Silva, his history shows he can finish any fight in an instant but it has to be noted that his last win was against Stephan Bonnar in 2012. There are fights since like the Nick Diaz and Michael Bisping fights where you can point to glimpses of the ‘old’ Silva but the result of both ultimately don’t lie in his win column.
Brunson meanwhile fought extremely uncharacteristically against Robert Whittaker in his last bout and he even went as far as describing his own performance to that of a ‘chump’. He rushed forward with his chin up and if he replicates that against Silva, it’ll be a short night for Brunson.
For this fight I doubt he’ll be as eager to make it a quick nights work and Brunson will go back to a more intelligent approach here. He has to make sure he doesn’t go too far over to the over side however, as the judges love a good Anderson Silva taunt when both fighters are offering little and Silva needs someone to be the aggressor to get his own gameplan going.
Silva still has the power to hurt his opponents and his speed has held up well over the years but his own ability to take a punch has dropped significantly and Brunson hits really hard when he connects. Add Brunson’s own takedown ability, a proven weakness of Silva’s game, and a pick for Brunson has to be made with a heavy heart.
Pick: Derek Brunson
Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza (23-4, 1 NC) vs Tim Boetsch (20-10)
Anything can happen in MMA, but surely ‘Jacare’ is going to steamroll Boetsch here.
Outside of Boetsch’s heavy hands, there’s very little that ‘The Barbarian’ can do which comes close to what ‘Jacare’ is capable of in the cage. In the clinch, Boetsch is a dangerous opponent to be fair but other fighters worse than ‘Jacare’ have beat him there and I’d be surprised if ‘Jacare’ didn’t take Boetsch down if he wound up in close.
There are levels to MMA and ‘Jacare’ hasn’t shown any signs of winding down in his career so I think the Brazilian outclasses Boetsch from the get-go and either gets an early submission or TKO victory here.
Pick: Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza
Glover Teixeira (25-5) vs Jared Cannonier (9-1)
When this fight was announced, I really wasn’t on board with it at all. “Why is the #3 LHW fighting someone with one fight at that weight class?”, “Why does the UFC throw prospects into the deep end in a division that needs new blood?” and “Does the UFC thing this is a Brazil Fight Night main event?” were just some of the questions that immediatedly popped into my head.
The closer it has got to this event, however, the more I think this is a really close match-up.
Teixeira is a steady hand at light heavyweight but he’s never really impressed despite his high ranking. His last fight ended in a devastating knockout at the hands of ‘Rumble’ which is nothing to be ashamed of but at 38-years of age, there’s certainly some question marks over Teixeira heading into this bout.
His best win is arguably a KO finish over Ryan Bader but Bader had Teixeira hurt badly and his overcommitment to an over-hand right allowed Teixeira the time to recover and counter with devastating effect. Outside of that victory, there are wins over fighters who were either over the hill or technically poor (an illustration and a brief description of what light heavyweight really boils down to) and the hype over Teixeira can be condensed down to one or two performances.
With Cannonier, he simply doesn’t fit into that stereotype of light heavyweight. He’s fairly young in the sport with just 10 fights under his belt and he has some sharp stand-up. His footwork is better than the majority at 205 lbs and his jab and power punches make him standout from the pack.
If Cannonier can keep this fight on the outside and use that jab from either stance to full effect, I think he can pull off the upset here. It must be said however that Teixeira is dangerous on the inside and if Cannonier’s misjudges his distance and is taken to the ground, the Brazilian’s ground and pound is something you really don’t want to be on the receiving end of.
Pick: Jared Cannonier
Dustin Poirier (20-5) vs Jim Miller (28-8, 1 NC)
This fight is such a fun PPV opener. Both men can finish when given an opening and they certainly won’t back down from a scrap which is what I expect this fight to be.
Miller is riding a three-fight win streak into this bout and will be flying high in terms of confidence. He’s a technical striker and more than adept on the ground and he’s a tough ol’ nut to crack.
Poirier meanwhile is pretty similar to Miller but, to his advantage, he’s a younger model with fewer wars under his belt. He’s skilful on the feet with his hooks being a particular standout while his grappling has helped put on fun exchanges such as those featured in his 2012 bout with ‘The Korean Zombie’.
Poirier’s speed and Miller’s tendency to tire later on in fights are the biggest factors here though in my opinion. Poirier is hittable but Miller isn’t exactly blessed with the speed or power needed to turn out ‘The Diamond’s’ lights and with doubts that the fight is finished early, I think Poirier will be able to do more damage the longer this fight wears on.
Pick: Dustin Poirier
(Last Predictions: 1/6, Total: 8/14, 57% Success Rate)
(2016: 61% Success Rate)